The global proportion of tropical cyclones that reach very intense (Category 4 and 5) levels is projected to increase ( medium to high confidence) due to anthropogenic warming over the 21st century.Storm size responses to anthropogenic warming are uncertain. This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size. Tropical cyclone intensities globally are projected to increase ( medium to high confidence) on average (by 1 to 10% according to model projections for a 2 degree Celsius global warming).Modeling studies on average project an increase on the order of 10-15% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm for a 2 degree Celsius global warming scenario. Tropical cyclone rainfall rates are projected to increase in the future ( medium to high confidence) due to anthropogenic warming and accompanying increase in atmospheric moisture content.Sea level rise – which human activity has very likely been the main driver of since at least 1971 according to IPCC AR6 – should be causing higher coastal inundation levels for tropical cyclones that do occur, all else assumed equal.More Likely Than Not (or Better Than Even Odds) > 50%. The terminology here for likelihood statements follows these conventions for the assessed likelihood of an outcome or result: “ Detectable” change here will refer to a change that is large enough to be clearly distinguishable from the variability due to natural causes. The main text of this web page gives more background discussion. But what does this anthropogenic global warming mean for Atlantic hurricane activity, or global tropical cyclone activity? Here, we address these questions, starting with those conclusions where we have relatively more confidence. The IPCC AR6 presents a strong body of scientific evidence that it is unequivocal that humans have caused the earth’s climate to warm, with a likely human contribution of 0.8 to 1.3 degrees Celsius to global mean temperature since the late 1800s. Have humans already caused a detectable increase in Atlantic hurricane activity or global tropical cyclone activity?.What changes in hurricane activity are expected for the late 21st century, given the pronounced global warming scenarios from IPCC models?.Two frequently asked questions on global warming and hurricanes are the following: Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming” “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II.“Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment.WMO Task Team assessment on tropical cyclones and climate change, published (2019 2020) in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:.ScienceBrief Review on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change published (Mar.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group I, (Released Aug.Recent Assessments of Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change: This site authored and maintained by: Tom Knutson, Senior Scientist, NOAA/GFDL
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |